Microsoft, which has been dogged byanalyst and media reports that it’s canceling some data center builds or slowing down its overall pace of deployment, reaffirmed its previousguidance that it would spend around $80 billion on data centers for its fiscal year. The affirmed guidance, Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities wrote in a note to clients, came “put to rest” the earlier chatter.
Meta, meanwhile, raised its guidance for capital expenditures from a range of $60 billion to $65 billion to at least $64 billion and as much as $72 billion.
Looking at these hyperscalers, as well as the data center company CoreWeave, Morgan Stanley estimates 38% annual growth in capital expenditures for cloud computing in 2025, to $392 billion — a $29 billion or 7 percentage point jump from its estimate a month ago. This increased spending will be a “boost to AI capex/power enablers.”
These companies, which make up the larger artificial intelligence supplier complex, were some of the most affected by Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs announcements, as energy production ishighly sensitive to the global macroeconomy. (Not to mention power plants and power plant suppliers are themselvesoften major purchasers of foreign goods and commodities.) GE Vernova, for example, told investors last month that it would take a several hundred million hit thanks to tariffs.
But in the topsy turvy world of post “Liberation Day” markets, these companies’ investors are optimistic about the future again.
Microsoft chief executive Satya Nadella told analysts on the company’s earnings call that “we will be short power” when it comes to building out data centers, and that “I need power in specific places so that we can either lease or build at the pace at which we want.”
How that power will be provided is one of the key questions of the energy transition.
Big tech companies tend to have some kind of commitment to using renewable or low-carbon power, and are among the country’s largest voluntary purchasers of non-carbon-emitting power. Microsoft, for example,is helping pay for the planned restart of one unit of the Three Mile Island nuclear plant by agreeing to buy its power output.
There is a tight market for all sorts of power equipment right now, especially gas turbines, which will remain in short supply well into the back end of this decade based on current production plans. Renewable developers such as NextEra argue that solar, wind, and batteries make the most sense to quickly meet the needs of power-hungry data center developers and utilities because of how quickly and cheaply they can be built.“We should be thinking about renewables and battery storage as a critical bridge to when other technology is ready at scale, like new gas-fired plants,” NextEra chief executive John Ketchum said on an earnings call late last month, reversing the typical line that natural gas can serve as a “bridge fuel” to a low carbon future. “Gas turbines are in short supply and in high demand.”
In the meantime, load growth from data centers could push up power prices across the board. So even if you can’t build a new gas plant anytime soon, the one you’re operating that’s powering a data center right now is as good as gold.
